It appears that United Airlines is dropping its 3x weekly service from San Francisco to Hangzhou, China (HGH). The route is just over a year old and part of the company’s major expansion into secondary cities in China. With ongoing weakness in China-originating traffic and a new focus on growing domestic traffic perhaps this cut is not too surprising. While still listed in public schedules the route does not appear for sale on the United website, a common scenario on weekends when the carrier loads major schedule changes into its systems. The final westbound flight is 14 October 2017.
United offers twice-daily service from San Francisco to Shanghai, not too far from Hangzhou. It also faces significant pressure from Chinese airlines rapidly expanding service into the United States. None of that helps with yields for flights to secondary cities. The Hangzhou route theoretically benefits from not being service into Beijing or Shanghai in the sense that the airport is not overwhelmed with traffic and subject to random, extensive delay programs due to military aviation activity. But it is close to Shanghai, possibly close enough to still be affected in some cases.
Read More: A Cloudy Outlook on China-US Open Skies
The US-China market is still governed by a bilateral treaty that makes adding additional service challenging. There are no additional traffic rights available for US carriers to Tier 1 cities in China; any expansion must be to secondary destinations at this point. Delta recently reassigned its Tokyo-Shanghai service to Atlanta, preserving its allocation while further cutting its Narita hub. Dropping the route outright would’ve ceded the slots back to the DOT for reassignment to another US airline and a battle would have almost certainly ensued.
Read More: Hainan’s North America growth heads south of the border
But United mostly chose to avoid those battles in recent years, expanding into secondary markets with its fleet of more fuel-efficient Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft. Hangzhou, Xi’an and Chengdu are the trio the carrier tried with Brian Znotins in the roe of VP, Network, in charge of route planning. He left the company in late 2016 (now at WestJet planning a similar major international push) as part of the executive suite purge under new Untied CEO Oscar Muñoz. With his departure and the arrival of Scott Kirby as president for the airline the focus for growth shifted to domestic markets. Hawaii gets a major boost from United this winter, for example, and many domestic hub routes are seeing larger aircraft enter service while cuts are coming across the Atlantic as well.
In the most recent quarterly earnings call Kirby hinted at the pressures in China, though stopped short of calling for routes to be cut:
We have big exposure to China and less exposure to domestic. And so with China doing worse, and domestic is doing better, we’re going to underperform [relative to Delta] on the system level, not because we’re performing, but just because we have bad geography… If China goes gangbusters all of a sudden, we’ll outperform more. If China is bad, that kind of widens the gap.
EVP/CCO Andrew Nocella also talked about caution in the Chinese market during the call:
So we’re going to be really careful, particularly in Shanghai and Beijing over the next 12 months in terms of our capacity deployment to make sure we can move those markets in the right trajectory for a positive RASM outlook. But we’re really confident where we are in the Pacific partners and our hubs and we think we have these leading franchises.
Turns out that caution means at least one route dropping for now.
Read More: [Quick Take] Upgrading the United Airlines and Air China Strategic Partnership
Even with this cut United still has options in China. The carrier is deepening ties with Air China to help feed traffic and ANA offers a number of connecting opportunities via Tokyo, though neither of those arrangements include joint venture immunized operations (China is excluded from the ANA JV) nor an equity stake. Both Delta (done deal with China Eastern) and America (in progress deal with China Southern) are using partner equity stakes as part of their strategy in China.
Earnings call quotes from SeekingAlpha.
Never miss another post: Sign up for email alerts and get only the content you want direct to your inbox.
Dr. Dao’s incident was huge news in China. Lots of people dropped UA tickets for good.
While AA and DL also cite weakness in China I’m going to dismiss the Dao incident as a driver of major shifts in bookings. Had the other carriers not seen similar challenges I’d maybe believe it. But passengers prove time and again that what they say and what they purchase are two different things.
Dr Dao was NOT Chinese! That issue appears to have been mostly dismissed in China after it was clarified. UA flight activity has been consistently strong before and since then…
HGH did not have much a chance.
Launched as means to offer needed capacity to the ‘greater Shanghai’ region after years of inability to secure a 2nd SFO-PVG slot, but soon after it was announced the PVG slot became available.
Too bad for Apple though, a frequent corporate client on the route.
Hahahah another loser bringing up convicted felon DAO when in fact he’s Vietnamese
Kyle the loser, go back to the check in counter to earn your $25k a year okay ??
Soon, United will blame ME3 as the reason they dropped the route. Because ME3 is government subsidized, bla bla bla. Soon….
Not completely a surprise to me. It’s a big contract manufacturing area but I believe the type of industry that is concentrated there has slowed.
Thank you Seth! I had a flight for April (I paid 461 all in 🙂 ) now going to PVG instead which is fine cause it is for a vacation trip anyway
Hangzhou is a wonderful city. But it is a short high speed rail away from Shanghai, so I guess this makes sense.
Nanjing was about the same distance but faster to transit in PEK. So who knows. ????
There really is no benefit to flying to Hangzhou over Shanghai
I heard the route was not doing well, hence the cut.
I think it’s because people don’t know that hangzhou exists
Brian Greco no it’s because of the huge influx of capacity Chinese airlines are adding from secondary and tertiary Chinese cities to the West Coast
So I can add I paid 480.00 all in for a trip there for next April. My guess is they weren’t making any money on the route as Evan mentions above.
Comments are closed.